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HOW TO GET AN EDGE AT ROULETTE

HOW TO GET AN EDGE AT ROULETTE

by Laurance Scott

Laurance Scott is a roulette advantage player, and author of "Professional Roulette Prediction, Vols. 1 and 2," which is available in the AdvantagePlayer.com catalog at http://tinyurl.com/57t4mj.

Most Advantage Players scoff at the idea that anyone can beat the game of Roulette; however, many people have been doing just that for decades. For those of you unfamiliar with the methods to beat the game, here is a short primer.

There are three ways to beat the game:

Cheat. The most common method used to cheat at Roulette is to Past Post. This is where you place your bet after the ball has come to rest in the wheel. Nice work if you can get it, but the downside is that you can�t play Roulette in prison.

Take advantage of a biased wheel. For those of you who have the time to scout many wheels, record tens of thousands of numbers, and know a statistical math wiz, this technique might be for you. But exploiting a bias is not practical for the typical Advantage Player. You will spend a lot of time searching for the very few actual opportunities that exist, and if you do find one, the wheel will likely have been moved, or rotated, or repaired. If you can find a bias, the casino can find it too. This is largely a waste of time.

Predict the outcome by analyzing the motion of the wheel and the ball. This is where you can develop a real edge over the game, and it is a skill you can learn. It�s not easy, but it is not merely a theoretical possibility; there are many people out there in casinos doing it right now.

The question I get asked most often is this: How big of an edge do you have? The answer is: it varies, but averages between 15% and 20%. This answer can be very frustrating, especially for BJ players who are used to very exact and accurate edge calculations. The problem is that you can�t go up to just any old wheel and get a 15% edge all of the time. You must have the patience to wait until the right conditions come along, and then take full advantage of the situation.

The reason it is so difficult to exploit an edge in Roulette is that only a select few numbers have an edge at any one time ─ typically between three and seven numbers. If you bet these numbers, you will win over time. If you bet any other numbers, you will lose over time, plus you will lose at a rate greater than the house edge (5.26% on a 00 wheel). And, the numbers that can give you the edge vary from spin to spin. What a Roulette Advantage Player (AP) does is determine what these numbers are in real time as the spin unfolds.

Let�s look at the nature of a 20% edge. I think you may be surprised.

Many Roulette APs bet only three numbers on every spin. Although you will be playing with an edge, the fluctuations can be maddening. When you bet three numbers, expectation is to win slightly less than one time out of twelve. If you win exactly one time out of twelve you will break even. But, if you win one time out of ten you will have a 20% edge. If you make ten bets at $1 per number, your total action will be $30. When you win, your return is $36.

EDGE = (RETURN / ACTION) � 1 = (36 / 30) � 1 = 20%

The problem is that you don�t win at a constant rate of one out of ten. Sometimes you will win three bets in a row. Other times, it is not uncommon to go forty spins without a win. Because of these wild fluctuations it is difficult to know if you are really playing with an edge. You might ask: Why don�t you just bet more numbers? The answer is because the edge decreases as you bet additional numbers. If you take this argument to its logical conclusion you would wind up betting every number on the wheel. I think we can all agree there is no edge in doing this.

The upside is that it is very difficult ─ no, make that impossible ─ for the casino to know if you are playing with an edge. A win rate of one out of ten is indistinguishable from a win rate of one out of twelve. Unless the casino is keeping very accurate long-term records, there is really no way for them to know if a player is just lucky, or if he really has an advantage. Have you ever heard of a Roulette player getting kicked out of a casino?

The question remains as to how you can get an edge at roulette. Here�s how.

The first thing a Roulette AP does is look for a wheel where the ball drops consistently from the same point on the track. Consistent drop points can be caused by many factors that I don�t want to describe here, and the only way you can know if a wheel qualifies is to watch at least fifty spins and record where the ball drops off the track. If the ball drops from the same point seven out of ten times, you can get an edge. (There are advanced techniques for beating a wheel with dual drop points, but these are beyond the scope of this article.)

Once you find a wheel with a consistent drop point, you must then correlate the position of the wheel at a known revolution of the ball with the most favored landing spot in the wheel. This is not easy to do, and requires three skills:

1. How to pin-point when the ball is X number of revolutions from the end of the spin
2. How to adjust for different wheel speeds
3. How to adjust for scatter (bounce) once the ball strikes the wheel

In my materials, I describe exactly how to learn these skills. But be warned: Out of every 100 people who think they can do this, only one will persevere and actually do it. You need to have an almost fanatical love of the game to be successful. These techniques are not for the casual player.

By now you should have an inkling of how the game can be beat, and the nature of the edge you can expect. But, like BJ, just getting an edge is not enough. You need to know how to exploit it and take the money off the table.

The Achilles� heel of Roulette prediction is the fact you must bet after the ball is launched. However, I don�t think you will ever see a time when casinos will forbid betting after the ball is launched. This would drastically reduce their action, and many players are suspicious that dealers can shoot against them and, therefore, they routinely place their bets after the dealer starts the spin. To be a successful Roulette AP you need to know how to comport yourself at the table so as to best disguise what you are doing. Here are a few tips:

• Learn to identify the ball revolution by sound and feel. Don�t stare into the wheel during the spin.
• Don�t always bet consecutive numbers. Scatter your bets so you look like a "low number" or "high number" player.
• Keep the dealer on your side. Tip generously if you are getting good conditions, and get the dealer into the game by placing a bet for them every once in a while. The best way to do this is to bet a chip on a number you just hit, encouraging them to try and repeat that number.

The first step to beating Roulette is to believe it is possible. Most players who read this article will still think this is just fantasy and wishful thinking. But, that�s OK by me. Just don�t get in my way as I go to the cage and cash my chips.

Note: Laurance's basic and advanced methods of roulette prediction can be found on the AdvantagePlayer.com catalog at http://tinyurl.com/57t4mj.